Metadata-Version: 2.1
Name: mlforecast
Version: 0.0.7
Summary: Scalable machine learning based time series forecasting
Home-page: https://github.com/Nixtla/mlforecast/tree/main/
Author: José Morales
Author-email: jmorales@grupoabraxas.com
License: Apache Software License 2.0
Description: # mlforecast
        > Scalable machine learning based time series forecasting.
        
        
        [![CI](https://github.com/Nixtla/mlforecast/actions/workflows/ci.yaml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Nixtla/mlforecast/actions/workflows/ci.yaml)
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        [![Python](https://img.shields.io/pypi/pyversions/mlforecast)](https://pypi.org/project/mlforecast/)
        [![PyPi](https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/mlforecast?color=blue)](https://pypi.org/project/mlforecast/)
        [![conda-forge](https://img.shields.io/conda/vn/conda-forge/mlforecast?color=blue)](https://anaconda.org/conda-forge/mlforecast)
        [![License](https://img.shields.io/github/license/Nixtla/mlforecast)](https://github.com/Nixtla/mlforecast/blob/main/LICENSE)
        
        ## Install
        
        ### PyPI
        
        `pip install mlforecast`
        
        #### Optional dependencies
        If you want more functionality you can instead use `pip install mlforecast[extra1,extra2,...]`. The current extra dependencies are:
        
        * **aws**: adds the functionality to use S3 as the storage in the CLI.
        * **cli**: includes the validations necessary to use the CLI.
        * **distributed**: installs [dask](https://dask.org/) to perform distributed training. Note that you'll also need to install either [LightGBM](https://github.com/microsoft/LightGBM/tree/master/python-package) or [XGBoost](https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/install.html#python).
        
        For example, if you want to perform distributed training through the CLI using S3 as your storage you'll need all three extras, which you can get using: `pip install mlforecast[aws,cli,distributed]`.
        
        ### conda-forge
        `conda install -c conda-forge mlforecast`
        
        Note that this installation comes with the required dependencies for the local interface. If you want to:
        * Use s3 as storage: `conda install -c conda-forge s3path`
        * Perform distributed training: `conda install -c conda-forge dask` and either [LightGBM](https://github.com/microsoft/LightGBM/tree/master/python-package) or [XGBoost](https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/install.html#python).
        
        ## How to use
        
        ### Programmatic API
        
        Store your time series in a pandas dataframe with an index named **unique_id** that identifies each time serie, a column **ds** that contains the datestamps and a column **y** with the values.
        
        ```python
        from mlforecast.utils import generate_daily_series
        
        series = generate_daily_series(20)
        display_df(series.head())
        ```
        
        
        | unique_id   | ds                  |        y |
        |:------------|:--------------------|---------:|
        | id_00       | 2000-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.264447 |
        | id_00       | 2000-01-02 00:00:00 | 1.28402  |
        | id_00       | 2000-01-03 00:00:00 | 2.4628   |
        | id_00       | 2000-01-04 00:00:00 | 3.03552  |
        | id_00       | 2000-01-05 00:00:00 | 4.04356  |
        
        
        Then create a `TimeSeries` object with the features that you want to use. These include lags, transformations on the lags and date features. The lag transformations are defined as [numba](http://numba.pydata.org/) *jitted* functions that transform an array, if they have additional arguments you supply a tuple (`transform_func`, `arg1`, `arg2`, ...).
        
        ```python
        from mlforecast.core import TimeSeries
        from window_ops.expanding import expanding_mean
        from window_ops.rolling import rolling_mean
        
        ts = TimeSeries(
            lags=[7, 14],
            lag_transforms={
                1: [expanding_mean],
                7: [(rolling_mean, 7), (rolling_mean, 14)]
            },
            date_features=['dayofweek', 'month']
        )
        ts
        ```
        
        
        
        
            TimeSeries(freq=<Day>, transforms=['lag-7', 'lag-14', 'expanding_mean_lag-1', 'rolling_mean_lag-7_window_size-7', 'rolling_mean_lag-7_window_size-14'], date_features=['dayofweek', 'month'], num_threads=8)
        
        
        
        Next define a model. If you want to use the local interface this can be any regressor that follows the scikit-learn API. For distributed training there are `LGBMForecast` and `XGBForecast`.
        
        ```python
        from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
        
        model = RandomForestRegressor()
        ```
        
        Now instantiate your forecast object with the model and the time series. There are two types of forecasters, `Forecast` which is local and `DistributedForecast` which performs the whole process in a distributed way.
        
        ```python
        from mlforecast.forecast import Forecast
        
        fcst = Forecast(model, ts)
        ```
        
        To compute the features and train the model using them call `.fit` on your `Forecast` object.
        
        ```python
        fcst.fit(series)
        ```
        
        
        
        
            Forecast(model=RandomForestRegressor(), ts=TimeSeries(freq=<Day>, transforms=['lag-7', 'lag-14', 'expanding_mean_lag-1', 'rolling_mean_lag-7_window_size-7', 'rolling_mean_lag-7_window_size-14'], date_features=['dayofweek', 'month'], num_threads=8))
        
        
        
        To get the forecasts for the next 14 days call `.predict(14)` on the forecaster. This will update the target with each prediction and recompute the features to get the next one.
        
        ```python
        predictions = fcst.predict(14)
        
        display_df(predictions.head())
        ```
        
        
        | unique_id   | ds                  |   y_pred |
        |:------------|:--------------------|---------:|
        | id_00       | 2000-08-10 00:00:00 | 5.23798  |
        | id_00       | 2000-08-11 00:00:00 | 6.2492   |
        | id_00       | 2000-08-12 00:00:00 | 0.238271 |
        | id_00       | 2000-08-13 00:00:00 | 1.23278  |
        | id_00       | 2000-08-14 00:00:00 | 2.26742  |
        
        
        ### CLI
        
        If you're looking for computing quick baselines, want to avoid some boilerplate or just like using CLIs better then you can use the `mlforecast` binary with a configuration file like the following:
        
        ```python
        !cat sample_configs/local.yaml
        ```
        
            data:
              prefix: data
              input: train
              output: outputs
              format: parquet
            features:
              freq: D
              lags: [7, 14]
              lag_transforms:
                1: 
                - expanding_mean
                7: 
                - rolling_mean:
                    window_size: 7
                - rolling_mean:
                    window_size: 14
              date_features: ["dayofweek", "month", "year"]
              num_threads: 2
            backtest:
              n_windows: 2
              window_size: 7
            forecast:
              horizon: 7
            local:
              model:
                name: sklearn.ensemble.RandomForestRegressor
                params:
                  n_estimators: 10
                  max_depth: 7
        
        
        The configuration is validated using `FlowConfig`.
        
        This configuration will use the data in `data.prefix/data.input` to train and write the results to `data.prefix/data.output` both with `data.format`.
        
        ```python
        data_path = Path('data')
        data_path.mkdir()
        series.to_parquet(data_path/'train')
        ```
        
        ```python
        !mlforecast sample_configs/local.yaml
        ```
        
            Split 1 MSE: 0.0239
            Split 2 MSE: 0.0190
        
        ```python
        list((data_path/'outputs').iterdir())
        ```
        
        
        
        
            [PosixPath('data/outputs/valid_1.parquet'),
             PosixPath('data/outputs/valid_0.parquet'),
             PosixPath('data/outputs/forecast.parquet')]
        
        
        
Keywords: python forecast forecasting machine-learning dask
Platform: UNKNOWN
Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
Classifier: Natural Language :: English
Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.6
Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.7
Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.8
Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: Apache Software License
Requires-Python: >=3.6
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
Provides-Extra: aws
Provides-Extra: cli
Provides-Extra: distributed
